The likely impacts of BSE policy on UK milk and beef markets and on livestock numbers between 1997 and 2000 are explored using a dynamic spreadsheet model of UK milk and beef production, and linked demand, price and supply models for alternative meats. Two accelerated slaughter policies are considered - one representing the ‘Florence Agreement’ and the other involving an additional culling of calves born to confirmed BSE cases. The projections show significant changes to livestock populations over the next few years with implications for veterinary inputs. It is estimated that the BSE crisis will result in a fail in expenditure on veterinary medicines and services of around £10 million in 1999 (for the Florence Agreement) compared with that projected in the absence of the BSE crisis.
- British Veterinary Association. All rights reserved.
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